Estimating the probability of passing the national paramedic certification examination.

OBJECTIVES It is hypothesized that student and program characteristics will influence the probability of passing the national paramedic certification exam. The objective of this study was to utilize student and program characteristics to build a statistical model to determine the probability of success on the cognitive portion of the national paramedic certification exam. METHODS The study population for this analysis consisted of graduates attempting the National Registry of Emergency Medical Technicians (NREMT) paramedic written examination from January 1, 2002, through December 31, 2002. To be included in this analysis, graduates must have been first-time testers and have completed a survey attached to the exam. Independent variables analyzed reflected program and student characteristics derived from the survey questions and the NREMT application. A multivariable logistic regression model was fit to the outcome (pass/fail) of the examination. RESULTS Complete demographic and survey data were available for 5,208 (86.8%) individuals. The final multivariable logistic regression model included nine independent variables. There were two programmatic characteristics (national accreditation and instructor qualification), six student characteristics (high school class rank, years of education, required for employment, age, race, and gender), and one graduate characteristic (elapsed time since course completion) that had a significant effect on the probability of passing the examination. CONCLUSIONS National program accreditation, lead instructor qualifications, student educational background, and student demographics are all significantly associated with the probability of success on the national paramedic certification examination. This model can be used by program directors, paramedic program instructors, and prospective paramedic students to maximize the probability of attaining national paramedic certification.